MODELLING AND FORECASTING FUTURE RETAIL PRICE OF CAPSICUM ANNUM L. VAR. KULAI FOR FOOD SECURITY AND SDG ISSUES IN PERLIS, MALAYSIA

• Published in: Journal of Lifestyle and SDG'S Review
• Main Author: Aziz A.A.; Fozi N.Q.M.; Shahidan W.N.W.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Published: Editora Alumni In 2025
• Online Access: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85216471845&doi=10.47172%2f2965-730X.SDGsReview.v5.n02.pe03072&partnerID=40&md5=b70259056fbb3d0284358f794e0f2e08

Objective: This study focuses on the modeling and forecasting of the retail price of Capsicum Annum L. Var. Kulai in Perlis, Malaysia, as a measure to support food security initiatives. Theoretical Framework: Food security is a pressing global issue exacerbated by factors such as climate change, conflicts, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Malaysia, ranked 41st in The Global Food Security Index (GFSI) 2022, has seen a concerning rise in food insecurity, driven by increased agricultural input costs and a high dependency on food imports. Method: Using historical monthly time series data from January 2018 to May 2023, various univariate time series models were employed, including Naïve, Seasonal Naïve, Holt’s Method, and ARIMA models. Results and Discussion: The study found that Holt’s Method provided the most accurate forecasts, with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.4607. The model predicts a continued increase in chili prices, which could pose challenges to food security in the region. Research Implications: These findings underscore the importance of accurate price forecasting in formulating effective agricultural policies and supporting local communities in mitigating food insecurity. This research contributes to worldwide initiatives aimed at fulfilling SDGs for goal 2 (Zero Hunger and Sustainable Agriculture), goal 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and goal 13 (Climate Action). Originality/Value: This study offers valuable insights into forecasting the price of Capsicum Annum L. Var. Kulai in Perlis, Malaysia. Food security challenges have increasingly affected this area as various univariate time series models have been applied, and Holt’s method has been identified as the most effective. Providing policymakers with reliable forecasts guide strategic agricultural policies and supports food security efforts. © 2025, Editora Alumni In. All rights reserved.